According to US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, President Vladimir Putin will not conclude the Ukraine war with the Donbas campaign and is intent to construct a land bridge to Russian-controlled territory in Moldova (May 10). US intelligence believes it's becoming more possible that Putin may mobilize his entire country, even declaring martial rule, and is banking on his tenacity to erode Western support for Ukraine.

        "We believe President Putin is planning for a protracted struggle in Ukraine, during which he will pursue objectives beyond the Donbas," Haines added. After failing to seize Kyiv in the north, US intelligence believes Putin's choice to focus Russian forces in the eastern Donbas region is "just a temporary move."

        According to Haines, Russian forces still want to gain land along the Black Sea coast, in part to safeguard water resources for Crimea, which Moscow took in 2014. "We... see evidence that the Russian military intends to expand the land bridge to Transnistria," Haines said, referring to the Moldovan breakaway area along Ukraine's southwest border that is backed by Moscow.

MARTIAL LAW OPTIONS

        She claimed, however, that the existing Russian military is not numerous and powerful to seize and keep all of that region without a more widespread mobilization of soldiers and resources from Russian society. She stated that the Russian president's aspirations are "incompatible with Russia's present conventional military capability."

        "This certainly suggests we'll be heading down a more uncertain and perhaps escalatory trajectory in the coming months," she added. "The present trajectory raises the chance that President Putin would resort to more severe measures to achieve his goals, such as declaring martial rule, reorienting industrial production, or potentially escalatory military options," Haines told the panel.

        Russian forces will increase their efforts to disrupt Western military supply to Ukraine, and Moscow may seek retaliation for economic sanctions. She claimed that Putin expects to be able to outlive Western backing for Ukraine as the conflict continues.

        "Putin is most likely also of the opinion that Russia has a higher capacity and willingness to persevere in the face of adversity than its opponents, and he is most likely depending on US and EU determination to erode as food shortages, inflation, and energy costs worsen," Haines added.

'STALEMATE'

        In the same session, US Defense Intelligence Agency Director Lt Gen Scott Berrier described the present fighting in the Donbas region as "a bit of a stalemate," with both troops facing down along a lengthy front. That may change, he added, if Moscow declares war and orders a major military mobilization to beef up its forces.

        "If Russia does not declare war and mobilize, the stalemate will endure for a long time, and I don't see either side breaking through," Berrier said. "If they mobilize and declare war, it will bring thousands more soldiers to the conflict," he added. "Even if they aren't as well-trained and capable, they will bring mass and a lot more ammo."

NUCLEAR RHETORIC 

        According to Haines, who supervises the whole US intelligence community, including the CIA and the National Security Agency, Russia's leader is not willing to escalate the confrontation by deploying nuclear weapons. According to Haines, Putin utilizes nuclear "rhetoric" to scare the West away from supporting Ukraine.

        She said that, because he believes the West is ignoring his warnings, Russia may escalate the rhetoric by initiating a new nuclear military exercise featuring the deployment of his nuclear threats on land, air, and submarines.

        Nonetheless, US intelligence believes Putin would only authorise the deployment of even smaller "tactical" nuclear bombs if Russia faced a "existential danger," according to Haines. She predicted that Moscow would increase its signaling to show when it was ready to deploy nuclear weapons.